46: Touching the intermediate level
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Your opponents are creating a database on you, modeling an image in their heads of how you play. Keep in mind what they think they know and help them paint a beautiful picture, the kind that'll send them into an illusory dream, one they won't wake up from until they're out of chips.

 

Joey's eyes were glazed over. His face displayed more black lines than the zebra cap Ellie wore last week. He'd pumped himself up so much, but for the past two hours, he only sat there like a statue without playing a hand. Not a single one. Since he joined the table, the dealer hadn't dealt him any playable cards.

Joey sighed. 'Nothing I can do. This kind of thing happens occasionally, and at least it's better than losing. On the bright side, I've had more free time to observe the other players.'

Joey studied his opponents over many hands, figuring out the differences between those who played 2-5 and 5-10. Players at 5-10 were tighter preflop, more aggressive, trickier, exhibited fewer tells, and just all-around better. Their foundations were steadier and they were tough. Even the fish here possessed positive points. If you came into this game with the same simple method you used to win in 2-5, there's little chance it would work. At best, you would break even.

Joey played long enough to have understood that there is no universal best strategy. An ideal poker strategy has to be flexible and opponent dependent. If he played with some fixed recommended system, he could grind out a small profit, but it would be at the cost of limiting his future development. Growth requires change. While being flexible has its dangers, the worst of which is being broken in half, it's also a necessary condition for evolution.

With so much time to scan for prey, Joey had chosen his targets long ago. He marked several players as soft spots. Now he just needed to wait for opportunities, something he'd already practiced to perfection over the past several hours. Finally, the heavens took pity on him. In the seat before the button, known as the cutoff, Joey looked down to see [10♣ J♣], pretty good cards. Although still within the class of suited connectors, they were the best of that category.

Everyone folded to Joey who raised to 30. The button looked at his hand and reraised to 100, after which the blinds folded. Since he sat down, Joey paid particular attention to this reraiser because he was sitting to Joey's left.  That made him a key focus since their proximity meant that they were likely to clash in future pots.

This opponent's name was Andy. He was a middle-aged regular here. Joey characterized him as a solid player, tight and aggressive, the type of competitor Joey wasn't excited to fight against. However, TJ suited had enough potential to see a flop for 70 more, so he called. There was 215 in the pot. The two of them watched with bated breath as the dealer unleashed the cards.

[Q♥ Q♣ 9♦]. Joey flopped an open-ended straight draw that had the potential to make a straight on two ends: an 8 would give him 89TJQ and a K would give him 9TJQK, a straight in either case.

A pair of queens on the board was somewhat bad for Joey's draw. It represented that he may already be drawing dead against a full house or four of a kind. If his opponent had QQ, it would be a monumental disaster. In that scenario, even if Joey caught an 8 or a K, he would still lose. Joey's hand was decent, but it was only a draw, so he had to be careful. Positioned as the button, Andy acted last, meaning it was Joey's time to make a move; He had two options, bet out or check.

'What would happen if I check?' Joey visualized the scenario in his mind. Considering what he'd seen of Andy's past betting, he'd spotted that Andy liked to continuation bet often. Since Andy owned the betting lead from putting in the last raise preflop, he would probably want to maintain his aggressive posture. The best way to do that would be to fire a continuation bet on this flop if Joey checked.

Andy was also intelligent enough to recognize that Joey noticed his habit of frequent continuation betting. Therefore, Andy had to believe that if Joey held a powerful hand, the obvious tactic would be to check to let Andy bet and build the pot. This meant that a bet from Joey would stink of weakness.

Joey couldn't bet. If he did so, Andy would correctly read it as vulnerable and force him to eat a raise—a situation that would make Joey grind his teeth. As a result, Joey checked and allowed Andy to make the first move.

Like two snipers hunting each other in a ruined city, the two assassins set traps and calculated the opponent's thoughts. When skillful enemies clash in poker, this is the psychological battle that ensues, right before one is headshot.

As expected, Andy continuation bet 200.

Joey knew it was coming but that didn't soften the blow. He hated this pot-sized bet because his hand was too marginal to call. Regardless, his first step was to calculate what Andy had.

Joey had been playing so tight that his preflop raise had to look very strong to Andy. As a result, a straightforward and solid player like Andy was very likely to have overwhelming cards if he was willing to reraise Joey preflop.

Joey deduced what Andy's range of hands consisted of, trying to consider the most likely possibilities. He believed Andy could have AK, big pairs from TT to AA, or maybe AQ. Pretty much all of Andy's possible hands, except AK, were decent to strong on this flop. In a situation like this, a person could argue that the conservative and smart play would be to fold. 200 was too large of a bet to call with only a marginal draw in this spot.

'Calling is a losing play for sure. In that case, my options are raising or folding. As for raising as a bluff...it's very difficult. His range is just too good here. I played one hand in two hours, making my image scream, 'I only play big hands!' Despite that, he raised anyway, telling me his hand is even bigger. Wait...my image!'

Overwhelmed by a powerful insight, Joey's mind raced. He can make use of his table image! In every game, each player at the table has some impression of how every one of their opponents plays. This is their image of that player, and like a person can change their clothes, a poker image can also mutate, sometimes outside of the player's control.

In Joey's 2-5 game, he played many hands, and in a manner that was savage and fearless. He was also a regular winner, so his image was of a loose aggressive, but very tough opponent. Fortunately, none of these opponents had experience versus him so they were unlikely to know that. All they knew was that in the current 5-10 game, Joey looked like a scared tight-ass waiting to play only monsters, but this was far from the truth.

Joey hadn't played a hand, but his opponents didn't know that his two hour silent meditation was merely the result of being fed an unfortunate streak of garbage cards. They mistook the demon for angel, a fatal mistake.

An additional factor affecting his image was less obvious. Most of his opponents were aware that Joey was a 2-5 regular and was moving up today. Joey had read that when new players move up, they almost always exhibit a set of universal characteristics in how they play in a bigger game: tight, hesitant, and straightforward. It's difficult to avoid this. When moving up, you have to suffer under the staggering pressure generated by new enemies and riskier stakes. If that's the case for everyone else, why wouldn't it be for Joey?

He knew his opponents would believe he lacked the balls to burst out with an enormous bluff. If Joey raised, he had to be strong! At least, that's what they'd think…

Joey's bluff potential was enormous. If a man plays one hand per night, he's likely holding aces. Anyone paying attention would give him respect and fold. Joey's image was super tight and he never showed a bluff in this game. If he put in a big raise, he felt confident that Andy would start doing stretches, and then run for the hills. However, there was still a crucial issue.

It's common knowledge that it's unwise to bluff a player who you know has a strong or even decent hand. In this spot, that was the majority of Andy's range, making a bluff unreliable or even reckless. It's naive to hope that someone would fold a big pair like KK or AA here. At least, that would be the case normally, but this situation wasn't normal! Joey knew enough about Andy to conclude that with Joey's current image, Andy was capable of such a fold!

Based on Andy betting 200 into a 215 pot on this flop, Joey was positive he didn't have AQ or QQ. If Andy had that, he would've bet less or even checked behind to trap Joey. Andy's body language also suggested that he held a good hand such as KK or AA, but not any monster stronger than that.

With all of the factors discussed so far, Joey bluff raising this flop could still only be considered somewhere between a marginal to decent move, but there was more. One last piece completed the jigsaw puzzle of this hand, showing that the picture displayed a must raise situation.

Joey's range had higher nut potential than Andy. What is that? Well, Joey was almost sure Andy wasn't sitting on AQ or stronger, meaning the best Andy could have was AA--a strong hand but one that had to shiver at the sight of three queens. Andy had no potential to have a monster, aka nutty hand. In contrast, Joey had many queens in his range! He could have AQ, QK, QJ, QQ, and 99, all nutty hands. Thus, Joey had more nut potential!

The significance was that a raise from Joey would be believable, which was crucial to force Andy to fold. Believability is one of the absolute requirements of a successful bluff. When Joey checked before, if he had bet out instead, it wouldn't have been believable that he was strong. Andy wouldn't have bought it, and would've raised as a result.

Improving Joey's credibility further is that on a flop like [Q♥ Q♣ 9♦], there weren't many strong draws he could bluff with. The board lacked a possible flush draw and only TJ could be considered a good straight draw. Considering how tight Joey has played, Andy might not even entertain the possibility of him having TJ. This was important because while Andy could guess that Joey might bluff with a flush draw, on this board he would have to believe Joey was bluffing with nothing. That would seem very hard to believe given Joey's tight image.

The last consideration was that if Joey bluff raised here, it wouldn't be a naked bluff with nothing. Even if Andy called, as long as Andy didn't already have a full house, Joey could come from behind and catch a straight. That gave him insurance. This category of a bluff is known as a semi-bluff where you have a chance to win even if called, making it much more profitable than bluffing with nothing.

After full consideration, Joey's move was obvious. Although he assessed so many aspects, only 10 seconds passed in reality until he came to a decision.

"I raise...all in."

Andy's head bowed at that declaration, proving that Joey was right that he didn't have a monster. Andy's knees were buckling under the pressure of Joey's raise. He took 20 seconds to consider his response as he looked at his two hole cards many times. With great reluctance, he sighed, picking his cards up and flipped them over onto the table. He had pocket kings. "I know you've got the queen kid. Nice hand...I fold."

"...Thanks." Joey collected the pot and passed his cards to the dealer.

This hand was noteworthy and not only because it was the first hand he'd won at 5-10. It wasn't the most exciting hand he'd ever played, or the biggest, but it was arguably the most remarkable for one reason; Until now, Joey had never taken the concepts he'd been studying and blended so many together to construct an advanced play during a game. Awakened through this experience, he touched a new frontier. This was his first step onto the continent of intermediate play. His feet were itching for exploration.

'That's the way. Now that I'm properly warmed up, it's time for the show to begin.'

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