57: The beauty of semi-bluffing
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I don’t like to gamble. I like to win.

 

“No diamonds!” big nose yelled as the dealer pulled the river card from the deck. This would decide their fate.

Big nose and Joey gulped. Their pupils shrunk. They stared at the descending dealer’s hand as if trying to see through it.

‘F*ck!’ Joey cursed.

The dealer’s fingers still blocked most of the card, but Joey saw it…

It was a spade…but he needed a diamond!

Big nose also saw the spade now and chuckled. “You missed your flush! Looks like I win! Too bad kid!” He reached forward to pull in the chips.

The dealer moved his hand off the card. Right when big nose’s hands reached the chips, the dealer blocked his outstretched arms with a stern expression as if saying “You shall not pass!”

The dealer then pushed the pot in Joey’s direction.

Big nose’s face was frozen into an expectant grin with his arms outstretched in the air like he was hugging a ghost. ‘Huh?’

Big nose complained. “Hey! What are you doing?!? He missed his flush! I have a pair!”

The dealer gave him a cold look. “Your pair…is no good.” Then he pointed to Joey’s [A♦ Q♦] and at the board.

[K♥ 2♦ 9♦ 5♠ A♠]

Big nose glanced at the board. “He missed his flush! It’s a spade! Look! Ace of spades…F*ck! The ace of spades!”

Joey made aces! Diamonds weren’t his only outs! Big nose was too focused on the fact that Joey missed his flush draw and didn’t notice it!

Big nose slumped down in his chair. This was going from heaven to hell! Big nose not only got knocked out of the tournament, he also ran into a dealer that was a natural-born troll!

A double whammy!

The dealer didn’t care. Players didn’t tip at the end of tournament hands. Some dealers were cold like that. It was big nose’s bad luck!

Joey scooped his new chips with a light smile. ‘That’s right! Even if you make a great call, daddy will still get there!‘

The odds of completing a flopped flush draw by the river are almost exactly 35%! In this hand, Joey could have also hit an ace or a queen to win, which made his odds over 51%. Joey was the favorite! Big nose had nothing to complain about!

When semi-bluffing, even if you’re called, you can still catch up! That’s the beauty of a semi-bluff!

At this time, a staff member arrived and informed Joey he’d have to move to a new table. It was unfortunate, but this is how tournaments go. Joey racked up his chips and prepared to reset.

As he approached his new seat, Joey heard a sneer to the side. He glanced in the direction and recognized his number one fan—sunglasses. This was the guy who knocked Joey out of the last tournament at this casino due to a rule technicality. Then Joey put a hurting on him in a cash game after. It seemed fate wanted a third match.

Even though sunglasses was a prick, Joey grinned when he saw him in the same game, because he knew sunglasses was a fish. “Hello, familiar friend!” Joey greeted sunglasses with the warmest smile he could muster.

Sunglasses saw the face of the devil.

Joey was trying to be more amicable with fish. Amy rebuked him last time they played with sunglasses and Joey thought she made a good point. It’s better for fish to like you so they can keep donating their money. Of course, whether Joey could keep being nice…he wasn’t sure, but he’d give it the old college try.

Upon sitting, Joey noticed he was one of the larger stacks at the table, but the biggest stack was his old chum sunglasses. Joey only wished him the best. He hoped sunglasses could keep growing his stack off these other players because sunglasses was Joey’s reserve bank account.

At a poker table, friends shake hands in unique ways.

Joey looked down at [10♠ A♥] in late position. He raised and sunglasses defended in the small blind. This could force Joey to dip into his savings early.

The flop came: [7♠ 7♥ 2♦]. This was one of the driest flops you could get. The suits were rainbow, all different, so there was no flush draw. There were no straight draws. The ranks were 7 and 2 which were unlikely to hit anyone since very few calling hands had low cards, especially 2s. Sunglasses was a fish but he still had some preflop standards. He also had memories.

Whether he buried them deep down, or cried about them to his therapist, that last as*whooping Joey laid on him would have left scars. Joey doubted that sunglasses would go out of his way to get cute with him by playing trash.

Since it was a super dry flop, Joey preferred to c-bet. The question was how much? Joey had read about many strategies regarding the frequencies and sizes of c-bets, but he liked adjusting the sizes depending on flop texture. On dry flops like this, against most opponents, Joey would have a high c-bet percentage but keep the bet small. On wet flops with many draws, he would c-bet less often but at larger sizes.

The reason Joey liked betting small on dry flops was that on most of them his opponent wouldn’t have anything and would fold. Since that was the case, it made sense to c-bet often to steal the pot, but to risk less by betting smaller.

On a wet flop, he would c-bet less often because the chance of getting called was much higher. He would also bet larger. That’s because when he did bet, Joey would have stronger cards and wanted to make his opponent pay more to continue.

In this hand, Joey c-bet 1/4 of the pot which was a standard small bet. On a very wet flop, he would bet the pot, and on a flop between dry and wet, he would bet 1/3 to 3/4 of the pot.

Sunglasses insta-called.

This was another instance of the quick call tell that big nose showed earlier that signified marginal strength. It was a common tell and Joey felt it was reliable here. He thought sunglasses likely had a small pocket pair between 3s and 8s. He could have AQ or something similar as well.

The turn came: [7♠ 7♥ 2♦ 2♥]. This wasn’t a good card for Joey because it wouldn’t scare sunglasses. Still, Joey thought there was value in betting because it would fold out hands like AQ.

A bet on this turn would also set Joey up for a third bluff on the river if a scary card came. If Joey checked now, a simple player like sunglasses would read it as weakness and call any river bet with a pair regardless of what card came. That meant checking here was the same as giving up, which Joey wasn't ready to do yet. So he bet.

Sunglasses insta-called again.

Once he called, Joey was almost certain he held a pocket pair.

The river came: [7♠ 7♥ 2♦ 2♥ K♥]. This was a great card for Joey. Although it didn’t improve his hand, a king was almost as scary as an ace. There was almost no way it helped sunglasses and a flush also came out.

Joey held the ace of hearts which was meaningful as a blocker. It would be difficult for sunglasses to have two hearts because most of his preflop hearts hands would have included the ace or king of hearts. One was in Joey’s hand and one was on the board, which blocked the possibility of hearts for sunglasses. This river had to make Sunglasses afraid, both of the flush and the king.

The pot was a good size now. Joey wanted to bluff and considered his bet sizing. He wasn’t 100% sure sunglasses would fold, but thought he had the biggest chance of getting him to fold with a large bet. It would mean risking a significant portion of his stack, but Joey gritted his teeth and made a pot-sized bet.

It was a triple barrel! Joey raised preflop and then bet all three streets. This type of bluff showed extreme strength! Even a fish like sunglasses had to feel the heat.

When Joey’s made his bet, sunglasses groaned. He had [3♣ 3♠]. He felt ok about his 3s before that terrible river card, but now? He rubbed his forehead with both hands for 2 minutes trying to figure out what to do.

Sunglasses glanced at his chip stack. If he called this river bet and lost, he would still have over 80% of his stack remaining. Then he glanced at Joey. He felt the throbbing of the psychological scars Joey had given him last time and his eyes narrowed. ‘I don’t know what you’ve got, but maybe I’m good. Who knows? It’s not that many chips to me. F*ck it! I'm calling!’

Sunglasses slid out a stack of chips into the center of the table.

He called!

Since they both used cards from the board, Joey would have two pair: 7s and 2s with an ace kicker. Sunglasses would have 7s and 3s with a king kicker. Sunglasses’ hand was stronger!

Joey’s bluff failed!

Joey’s eyes narrowed. It was now time for him to flip over his [10♠ A♥]…and lose! The loss to his stack would cut off his leg!

His brain went into overdrive! He was desperate in the face of this inevitable result! ‘Will I really lose here like this?’

Is there any way out for Joey? Find out Monday when I’ll publish the finale to this showdown. If you like the novel, please rate and favorite.

P.S. I added a scene to chapter one with a bit of foreshadowing for events that haven't happened yet. I also amplified the face-slapping in chapters 4 and 10 during Joey's early poker games. If you like, you can take a look.

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