Constantinople, Ottoman Empire

Constantinople, a city that is one of the most important cities throughout the ages and even now. Its history can be seen throughout its buildings and structures around the city. Greek and Roman engineering and architecture are still present in the city added with Turkic touch making a splendid combination of the Antiquity’s West and East adding vibrant color and splendor throughout the city.

Adem is driving a vehicle across the beautiful city of Constantinople, the sun shines towards the city making it more vibrant and alive. He can see children running throughout the city happily, the city may seem prosperous if you look at it, but if you scrutinized it more closely – beggars fill the city, the squalor area is the largest, and a lot of soldiers and police are present in the streets, only the rich can afford horse coach and vehicles, even normal citizens wear old and ragged clothes and factory smokes are starting to fill the city.

But even with the surroundings he just drove, Adem can’t seem to care about it and seems in a hurry. He also checked if any vehicles are following him. After a few blocks he drove across the city, he stopped in front of a two-story white building with a small store on the first floor of it.

As Adem entered the store, he was met by a large Slavic man in front of the store cashier counter, the eyes of the man is warily and menacingly checking every Adem’s movement and even his breathing. Adem felt dread and fear as the person was looking at him with his menacing eyes, the man was huge and can kill him very easily, he felt he was like helpless prey about to be mauled by a large predator.

But Adem gathered his courage and wits and walked towards the huge man. “The sun will rise from the North,” Adem says in the Greek language. The man only looked at him and replied also in Greek, “That would be impossible.” But Adem responds “The white sun does,” after such, the man withdraw his menacing gaze and pointed his finger toward a basement cellar. Adam nodded and then without question, walked towards the basement cellar and entered it.

The basement stair was dark and dirty and the air was filled with dust, Adem coughed as he continues to walk down the stairs. Then at the bottom, there is a large wooden door baring its way to the basement. He knocked on the door and says “It’s me Adem.” Then a voice inside responds with “Please come in my friend!”

What he witnessed as he entered the door is a very large space with an office set up inside. There is a sofa, a table, and a man sitting behind an office desk. The man was smiling at him and encouraged Adem to enter and sit on the chair in front of him. Adem just follow what the man said and sit at the chair that the man was pointing at him. Adem knows this man, he once trusted and treat as a close friend this person. They both know each way back during their college years, and both of them graduated from Berlin International University in Foreign Relations course.

During those times, they become close and become best friends, studying, partying, and attending social activities. But that end, during their graduation, Adem learned that his friend was a son of a high-ranking Russian aristocrat and he was spied on by his friend for confidential information from Adem’s father, who treated his friend also like a son. Adem became angry and their friendship fall apart, but the damage was already done, a lot of confidential information is leaked which resulted in an entire Ottoman intelligence network on Russian soil being captured and executed.

His father, due to connections and relationships, was able to avoid harsh punishments and only is demoted from the high post to the lower post. But even if they were able to avoid harsher punishment, the consequences are still severe, their family standing plummeted, their social friends cut off ties, and the road for promotions is blocked and always observed by the Ottoman secret police.

But even such, Adem would still repeat the mistakes he had done, and now it is with consent and participation. He gritted his teeth, he knows what he is doing right now is unacceptable and would bring their family to ruin.

But Adem who is accustomed to comfortable and powerful life, can’t come to terms with their fall and decline in power. He felt unjustified and wronged, even though it is his fault, that their family fortune turned upside down. And because of that, he would rather gamble again so that he can turn their fortune back.

He thinks that fortune will favor those who are bold enough, and if this social order would not give him any opportunities, then he would tear this down and would start a new social order with him at the top.

“You’re here Adem, it’s been five years,” the man in front of him start the conversation.

“Nikolai… I didn’t come here to reminisce about our past friendship. Even I’m joining hands with you, our friendship is already over,” Adem replied, “traitors can never be trusted.” Adem’s cold eyes are filled with hatred and disgust for his former friend. Their relationship now is strictly business and there would be no personal attachments involved, for it is already gone, only profits and information remain.

“I understand… let’s immediately start to business. Did you bring it?” Nikolai’s demeanors instantly turned indifferent when their conversation started to talk about sensitive issues.

“Here it is. You can check it for authenticity,” Adem says. “The Ottomans are planning to invade Austria. They were planning to expand the army, adding 500,000 more troops for the next two to three years.”

Nikolai can only crunch his eyes from the information he heard from Adem. He can’t believe that the Ottomans would wage war against the Austrians even though there are embroiled in conflicts in Southern Egypt and Persia. Also, a large number of uprisings and insurgencies occurred throughout the Ottoman lands, but they still have the energy to provoke a conflict against the Austrians.

Sure, the Austrian army is limited due to the treaty it signed after the Russo-Prussian war of 1832, but still, other countries would not let the Ottomans run wild and conquer Austrian lands. Russia for one, would not allow the expansion of its Southern nemesis and would support Austria in the war. The French and the British would also not allow the growth of a powerful Muslim-centered empire that is allied with the Germans and the Nords. “How is this even possible? Do the Ottomans know the repercussions of a such move?”

Adem just scoffed at Nikolai’s statement, “The Germans would allow it, even the Spanish, Sardinians, and Nords agreed to this secret deal. The Germans would have the Austrian regions, the Sardinians would have the Italian regions, the Ottomans would have some of the eastern regions of the Habsburg Empire and Hungary would become a buffer state between the two powers. They planned to finish Austria for six months at best and a year at most. The Austrians would not know what hit them, Hungary will rebel, then the Ottomans invades from the south and east, then if the Austrians would send their army toward the Ottomans and the rebellion, the Germans would move inside Austria under the pretense of protecting the German citizens.”

“That’s unreasonable, no one is dumb enough to believe that,” Nikolai stated, “the other powers would not allow that to happen!”

“Do you think the chaos in India and Asia is not the doing of the Germans? The British are busy in India while the French are busy in their Asian holdings. Do you think the Russians can fight alone with Austria if the conflict would escalate? Do you remember what happened on 1877? When almost the entirety of northern Italy has been united by Sardinia,” Adem explained. “The Germans want Sardinia to become powerful, so it invaded its neighbor with the support of the Germans, the British and the French only protested even though those small countries are their protectorates.”

“But Austria is another thing, it’s a large country, and if it is destroyed, there will be massive consequences. Austria become a rich land under the current emperor, even if it has a weak army, they have become a powerful economic juggernaut in Southern Europe. If those regions would be absorbed by Germany and the Ottomans, their power would grow exponentially. Even now, these two countries have become a threat to the British and French hegemony in the world, having those regions would tantamount to a disaster to the political balance.”

“But the Germans are willing to gamble,” Adem just sighed and says. “They would rather face the French, Russian, and British now rather than later, while they were in their peak strength and the other major powers in shambles with their problems. You can see in the documents I give you.”

Nikolai looked towards Adem to observe whether he is bluffing or not. But he can only see that Adem is indifferent to the situation. Rather than continue observing Adem, Nikolai reads the documents and he can’t stop twitching as he continues to read the lunacy of the plan.

The degree of lunacy and gambling in the plan astounds Nikolai, the German plan to swallow the entire Southern German Confederacy and Austrian regions. The plan was when the Russians would join the war or not. How to placate the British and French for not declaring war against them.

He can’t understand why would the Germans are willing to gamble the entire survival of their state. The German empire hasn’t even reached a hundred years and they’re now willing to gamble everything. If they would fail in their plans, everything would tumble down and collapse, their foundations are still shaky and their sudden rise to power has become a threat to others.

“There is a saying that Fortune would favor the bold and there is a thin line between geniuses and madmen. If Germany would succeed in their plans, history would laud them as geniuses and great men…” Adem says coldly, “but if they fail, they would be remembered as madmen and lunatics who ruin their nation.”

“And what are you implying now Adem? Please enlighten me” Nikolai also said coldly. If this plan would be implemented, it would have a catastrophic impact on Russia, its rise and fall would hang in the balance, and Nikolai can’t afford any lapse in the information he gathered, he was now annoyed and stressed about this situation, everyone’s fate is at stake.

“Nothing. It’s just that I can’t still believe that you can’t understand what the Germans are thinking. After the Napoleonic wars, every action they have done is all gambling. From the Russo-Prussian war of 1832 to the Italian wars of 1877 and their alliances are all gambles at the national level, and they have always succeeded and prevailed. This plan is just like that, they are taking risks again for the sake of becoming the top world power. The Russians, British and French have already done that and they also succeeded and have large swathes of lands and colonies, the Germans are just following them. That is the fate of large nations, there is nothing you can do to stop them from their moves.” Adem replied.

“Yes, I know,” Nikolai says, “but it is just… I don’t know how long this peace would last. I just hope it would last longer. It might sound like a hypocrite from us, shadows in the service of our nations. But I always think what I’m doing is for the betterment and peace. Those small sacrifices are for the majority. That’s that.”

Nikolai’s statement dampened the atmosphere inside the room. The future seems dimmed for both of their respective nations, one is preparing for war while the other one will surely respond in the war that will come. Both of them are dazed, thinking about the future to come.